We all know arrogant and self-centered people who succeeded despite everything we know about human relationships and how the society works. We try to make TeenInk.com the best site it can be, and we take your feedback very seriously. I have never met a person who said that life was not complicated. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. When someone asks you “what will stock X be at a year from now,” what’s the structure of your answer? (These links will automatically appear in your email.). We’ve also seen absolutely brilliant, nicest colleagues fail; hardest workers get succumbed by improbable, bizarre turn of events that no one would have predicted. Were the odds in my brother’s favor? My brother hadn’t asked for good luck either. Note: There are two ways of spelling this word. As parents, employees, leaders, we look at the future and estimate the odds: what’s the chance that our teenage son will do drugs? I asked for neither yet there they were. This quote, “May the odds be ever in your favor,” is reflected in my life. Sometimes, you’ll want to risk it all – pushing the average as far possible to the right; sometimes, you’ll want the variance to be lower, and you can take actions to make the outcome meaningfully more predictable. It was hardly an event as big as my father’s passing, but it was almost equally as significant. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. The best of us identify their built-in biases and adjust their decision-making accordingly, but even they can’t avoid the “sacred geometry of chance.“. Or, cynically put, how do you regain illusion of control, when you’re presented with objective evidence that you don’t have control? The odds were in the favor of the killer and my brother. Possibly. It’s something that would be said even in this day and age despite the difference of time between now and when the events of Hunger Games supposedly takes place. “May the odds be ever in your favor,” a favorite quote in the famous Hunger Games series. If you've been paying attention to The Hunger Games trailers, then you've heard that phrase at least a couple of times. I didn’t ask to be moved and I wasn’t asking for extra good luck, but that’s just the way life went. May the odds be ever in your favor I can understand why it sounds somewhat peculiar, but you need to consider the meaning. My brother was saved, my father was not so lucky. This is one of the advantage that the heroes of Michael Lewis’ Big Short exploited. Imagine you’re an entrepreneur that’s in the early stages of your venture, and you’re aiming to raise money at a valuation of $10M. Also, if you have a comment about a particular piece of work on this website, please go to the page where that work is displayed and post a comment on it. I never thought much about good luck, fate, cosmic gambling, or any of that sort until I was 7 years old. The odds were just in my favor. We are hard-wired to estimate the chances – and to over-value potential loss over potential gain, and over-value action over allowing things to proceed on their own. How do you keep on trying, knowing that at any point, it can all disappear because of something you could have never predicted? Usually, when the odds are against you, they’re in the favor of another. You guess its value based on your knowledge of the company, that is, you say “I think it’ll be at $50.” Based on this prediction, you buy the stock. We estimate these chances, and some of us are better than others; we look at the data, ask for advice, look for prior examples. I pray for it every single day. The odds just stack up the way they do, and we’re helpless to control it. If I had been absent or late it may have never happened. It was the one and only time that I didn’t pray that morning for the day to go well, for the odds or fate to be in my favor. Pasteur said it best: “Chance favors the prepared mind.” Accept that the world is probabilistic – your control over your reality will never be complete – but you most certainly can tip the odds in your favor. Which of your works would you like to tell your friends about? May the Odds Be Ever in Your Favor Posted by alex94040 February 15, 2016 Leave a comment on May the Odds Be Ever in Your Favor In life as in work, we’re constantly dealing with uncertainty. Being best friends with someone, my father dying, it was all sudden. Try to reduce variance, not just improve the mean. Here’s one way: change your model of the world from “predicting a value” to “modelling a probability distribution: both the mean (average) and the variance.” Let me explain. People usually remember events when life just threw something too hard. Truth is, just because you ask for the odds to be in your favor doesn’t mean it will happen. Favorite Quote:Truth is rarely pure and never simple~Oscar Wilde. Let’s geek out a bit and visualize this scenario using a probability density function: What are the activities that can reduce the variance – that is, increase the certainty of the outcome? Armed with this new variance tool, you can concentrate your activities to get to a risk profile that is appropriate for your current moment in time. What is the real value of the stock at this point? Definition of May the odds be ever in your favor. I'm Alex Weinstein, SVP of Growth at Grubhub. If they aren’t, the company’s stock should be worth $40, maybe $50 a year from now, as you expected. When I was in 6th grade, I became friends with someone after a simple seat change. Things just happen. Before a test, before confrontation, before a tragedy, before anything with risk, I hope that fate is on my side. With every obstacle that comes my way, I send a silent prayer hoping things work my way, that the odds be in my favor. Yes you could say it in a different way. What are some of the activities that can improve your valuation? There is always something gained for one and something lost for another. As a child, I had been happy and innocent. But how do you react if the company who’s stock you purchased is suddenly under investigation by the SEC, with pundits alleging that they have defrauded the market and lied in their latest earnings, and in reality, the company is about to go bankrupt? It doesn’t matter how many times we ask for good chances, it will surprise us anyway. What does it mean? It’s something that would be said even in this day and age … To identify those, let’s think of a few reasons why startups just fall of the face of the Earth: Activities that reduce the chance of these disaster scenarios reduce the variance: Note that the variance has two “sides” – the negative and the positive; you reduce both the chance of disaster and the chance of going far higher than the predicted average. So when saying, “May the odds be ever in your favor,” it doesn’t matter. What’s the chance that this system’s load will exceed what we designed it for? How do you reconcile it in your mind? If the allegations are true, the stock is worth $0. Then again, if my brother hadn’t been sick, he would have died too. If it was meant to be then it will happen, if it wasn’t then it won’t. “May the odds be ever in your favor,” a favorite quote in the famous Hunger Games series. May the odds be ever in your favor. That’s the choice you’re making when you concentrate on reducing the variance, not just the mean. I wouldn’t be who I am without my now best friend. The truth of the matter is that at one point or another, things will go horribly wrong, but there will be times when things go so right. When something is in your favor, it means to be to your advantage. Thank you. It means "Good luck", but no one would ever say that in real life unless they were talking about The Hunger Games. Someone in my math class was talking too much, so people were moved around and I found myself next to a person who I never paid much attention to, but after that moment, that just wasn’t the case. No one pays attention to the little things that happen that are just tiny blessings in disguise. No. Were they in my father’s, mother’s, and my favor? The market reacts predictably – the stock falls like a rock on the fears, perhaps from $40 to $20. But why them? No matter how hard we try, the element of randomness can’t be eliminated completely. How likely is this risky investment to result in a huge competitive advantage? In life as in work, we’re constantly dealing with uncertainty. The quote in itself can be translated to similar phrases like “Good luck” or “I hope fate is on your side.” The hope for good fortune to happen to you is something we all wish for in our daily lives especially with the things we struggle with today—bills, family, work, school. Tech blogs talk about them all the time: get customer feedback early; iterate, test assumptions; network. But the current price – $20 makes absolutely no sense; so buying stock options with the exercise price of $35 a share likely be a bargain in this situation. It is what it is. (this story was originally published on Venture Beat), Your email address will not be published. These help you move the mean to the right, but they don’t help with uncertainty much – the chance of failure (going to zero) doesn’t reduce. I simply wasn’t old enough to care before that point.
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